Recap丨CBBC Quarterly Economic Briefing Q2 2025: Smooth H1 Performance
Economic Performance of H1
Overall, China’s economy has had a smoother H1 performance than many analysts were predicting, achieving real GDP growth 0.2% higher than the 5% growth target for the year. Gary noted that sustained confidence in China’s economy despite geopolitical uncertainties has been reflected in the noticeably high number of foreign senior leaders travelling to China for headline summits and forums.
Sector Analysis
During his sector-by-sector analysis, Gary highlighted growth in online sales and tourism amid many examples contributing to stronger consumption.
Online Sales
In the first half of the year, the growth rate of online sales reached 6%, accelerated by the new trend within digital consumption of “instant retail”. This refers to e-commerce companies adopting a food delivery style system for delivering their packages, allowing many purchases to arrive same day. It has proven hugely popular in large cities where the extant infrastructure and latent workforce of drivers have facilitated immediate adoption.
Tourism
Meanwhile, more favourable policies towards foreigners visiting China and strong performance of domestic tourismboosted year-over-year tourism consumption growth to 8%. Gary pointed out that per capita tourism consumption importantly also increased by 1.5%. Despite tourism consumption exhibiting growth for the past two-three years since COVID, per capita consumption had been declining. This marks a positive turning point for the sector and is another good indicator of health within the economy.
Global Economy
Speaking on the global economy, Gary used the term “Negative sum game” to describe the current situation wherein US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty have led to falling global trade volume and cross-border investment. When commenting on the challenges facing multinational companies, he said there is now a keen awareness among international CEOs that a wave of highly competitive Chinese companies have been entering new markets across the globe in the last couple of years, in keeping with the current government impetus on the “China going global” policy.
Following his presentation, Gary fielded questions from members on the call on topics ranging from the property market to consumer confidence. CBBC thanks Gary for his time and valuable insights. We look forward to our members joining us for the Q3 economic briefing in October.