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  • Event Summary丨China Macro Outlook 2025
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Event Summary丨China Macro Outlook 2025

macro outlook
07/02/2025
On Tuesday, 21 January, China-Britain Business Council (CBBC) held it’s Q1 briefing on China’s Macro outlook by inviting Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist, abrdn, Markus Herrmann Chen, Co-Founder and Managing Director, China Macro Group; Barry Chen, Partner in Charge, InterChina to provide their insights on China’s economy for 2025.

The event provided a comprehensive review on the China’s economy in 2024 and discussed a series of questions related with economic growth, government’s intervention policies, retrieve investors/consumers’ confidence, real estate uncertainty and geopolitical factors that may affect the business in China.

The key takeaways from the event are as the following and please find the webinar recording for review in the end of this article. 

China's economic outlook is shaped by its resilience in closing 2024 on a strong note, supported by robust policy easing and green investment momentum. Despite facing headwinds from ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., China’s economy demonstrated solid growth, achieving a 5% annual GDP growth target. Key drivers included industrial production, retail sales, and emerging recovery signs in the real estate sector, which could mitigate the drags from prior adjustments. Investments in renewable energy also played a significant role, though concerns about sustaining the pace of capacity expansion persist. While green investments remain a growth pillar, risks of oversupply and infrastructure constraints could temper long-term gains.

Trade tensions, particularly the potential escalation of tariffs under renewed U.S. policies, are expected to weigh heavily on growth, potentially reducing China's GDP growth to 4.6% in 2025. Policymakers may respond with further monetary and fiscal easing, to counteract these pressures. However, structural challenges, such as high household savings rates, weak consumer confidence, and risks of deflation, pose significant hurdles. The evolving economic landscape underscores the balancing act required to maintain momentum while addressing systemic vulnerabilities, making the policy response critical in determining the trajectory of China's economy.

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