Australia, the canary in China’s coalmine?
While eyes have been fixed on the US-China relationship, tensions have been simmering for a while on the other side of the globe between Australia and China.
In 2019, Australia’s export to China accounted for 50% of the country’s total exports, coming on the back of several years of strong trade growth and spurred on by the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), signed in 2015.
Although economically intertwined, ongoing political tensions have plagued the relationship. This came to a head in early 2020 with Australia’s calls for an international investigation into the origins of COVID-19 resulting in a major souring of the relationship and a range of new tariffs and restrictions on key exports.
In addition to 80 percent duties on barley, China imposed tariffs of more than 200% on Australian wine as well as restrictions on beef, lamb, cotton, lobsters, timber and coal exports. Year-on-year, exports to China in July 2020 were down 16%.
As 2021 gets underway, we’ll be looking to understand:
- Whether the two countries are heading for a US-China Trade War, and what the future holds.
- How Australian business is navigating the relationship, given that 94% of Australians supported government efforts to reduce dependence on China (Lowy Institute’s 2020 Poll)
- What are the opportunities and expectations for reconciliation?
- What are the lessons for the UK and UK business?
- Whether the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), including by China and Australia, can helped diffuse tensions?
SPEAKERS
Richard McGregor
Senior Fellow for East Asia, Lowy Institute
Richard MCGREGOR is a senior fellow for east Asia at the Lowy Institute, Australia’s premier foreign policy think tank, in Sydney and a former Financial Times bureau chief in Shanghai, Beijing and Washington D.C. He has also been posted in Taipei, Tokyo, Hong Kong and London. His book, The Party, on the inner-workings of the Chinese Communist Party, published in 2010, was called a “masterpiece” by The Economist. Translated into seven languages, The Party was chosen by the Asia Society and Mainichi Shimbun in Japan as their book of the year in 2011. His book on Sino-Japanese relations, Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan and the Fate of US in the Pacific Century, published in 2017, was called “shrewd and knowing” by the Wall Street Journal and the “best book of the year” by the Literary Review in the UK. In 2018, it was awarded the Prime Minister of Australia’s award for best non-fiction book of the year. His last book, Xi Jinping: The Backlash, was published in 2019. McGregor was a visiting scholar at the Wilson Center and George Washington University in Washington from 2014-2016.
Philippa Jones
Managing Director, China Policy
A regulatory and trade policy specialist, Philippa set up China Policy following a career in research and the public sector. First studying in Beijing in 1975, she has now worked in China-related research and policy development for over thirty years.
From 2004-9 Philippa was senior advisor at the EU-China Trade Project (EUCTP), the EU’s largest trade-related technical assistance program worldwide. At the EUCTP Philippa led the agriculture, quarantine, quality and standards programs. Responsible for standards issues across all sectors, Philippa’s own focus was on risk and safety.
Prior to joining the EUCTP Philippa was a member of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. From 1999-2003 she served as trade policy specialist at Beijing’s Australian Embassy, a time of regulatory watershed in China. Following accession to the WTO in 2001, China embarked upon a major program of economic and legal reform that continues today.
Philippa holds an honours degree in Chinese and economics from the University of Oxford.
Michael Clifton
President, Australia-China Business Council, NSW
Principal - MJC Asia Consulting
Michael Clifton has enjoyed a diverse and varied career including almost 20 years in trade and defence appointments across Asia and the Middle East.
A graduate of the Royal Military College, Duntroon, Michael served in the Australian Army for 20 years before retiring at the rank of lieutenant colonel. He subsequently served a further 20 years with the Australian Trade and Investment Commission until his retirement from the Australian Public Service in December 2018. He now serves as President of the Australia-China Business Council, NSW; and consults to Australian companies seeking to enhance their presence in Asian markets.
Michael’s career highlights include almost six years as head of the Australian Trade and Investment Commission’s network in China and assignments in Hong Kong, Tokyo and Osaka. He has served as a Departmental Liaison Officer and adviser to the Minister for Trade, and Chief of Staff to a senior Cabinet Minister.
Michael speaks Chinese and Japanese, and holds a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) from the University of New South Wales.