China’s development in science and technology will focus on indigenous innovation, leapfrogging in key areas, and utilising S&T to support and lead future economic development. This is the essence of what is called China’s ‘medium- to long-term plan to develop science and technology’.

According to the plan, China will enhance its indigenous innovation capability in science and technology to become increasingly competitive internationally, achieve “leapfrog development” and, eventually, become an “innovative nation”. In particular, the following targets have been set to achieve these objectives: 
– investing 2.5 per cent of its increasing gross domestic product (GDP) in research and development;
– limiting its dependence on imported technology to no more than 30 per cent; and
– becoming one of the top five countries in the world in the number of invention patents granted to Chinese citizens and in the number of citations to Chinese-authored scientific papers.
 
Critical juncture
The plan to become an advanced technological nation has been formulated at a critical juncture of China’s development. China has in the past quarter-century achieved tremendous economic growth. But the next five to 10 years will be crucial to the nation’s modernisation. Advances in science and technological innovation will be important in alleviating pressures on population, resources, energy and the environment. At the same time, such advances will help China to become more competitive in the international market.
In the meantime, it may be possible for Chinese enterprises, particularly those in the high-tech sectors (information technology, biotechnology and nanotechnology) to leapfrog stages of advancement to reach high levels. Or, to put it another way, companies in these sectors may be able – with skill and investment – to avoid having to go through the conventional development stages experienced by developed countries.

In the mid-1990s China initiated the strategy of “strengthening the nation with science, technology and education” (kejiao xingguo). In particular, it made great efforts to push forward its science and education, including increasing expenditure on research and development significantly in the last decade, bringing more people into higher education, and carrying out major national programmes to turn some of China’s leading institutions of higher education into world-class institutions.

China has the potential to become an innovative nation. As a result of its sustained rapid economic growth, China today is the world’s second largest economy after the US in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Indeed, China has already become the world’s foremost manufacturing centre.
 
Rising up the ranks
In science and technological terms, China is now more than a developing country. China already has become the world’s second largest spender on R&D. Its expenditures on R&D, in PPP terms, according to Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2006 by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), reached US$136bn in 2006, ahead of Japan’s US$130bn, although it is still less than half of what the US spent.

In 2006 China’s R&D expenditures accounted for 1.4 per cent of its GDP, unachievable by any country at this stage of economic development. In some areas, China is among the world’s most advanced, particularly in life sciences, ‘nanosci-ence’ and space technology.

China has the world’s second largest pool of scientists and engineers devoted to R&D in 2006 (about 1.36m person-years). In recent years, China enrolled more than 50,000 new students in doctoral programmes, en route to surpass the US, which confers 40,000 doctoral degrees annually, although putting aside the question of quality and standards.

China has an added advantage over many other countries, that is, an overseas Chinese diaspora. Although of the nearly 1m Chinese who went abroad between 1978 and 2005, only about a quarter have returned, some of those permanently staying abroad have contributed to their motherland’s economic, scientific and educational enterprises.

Success of the plan depends on a growing economy. It also requires political support, allocation of resources (both financial and human), a greater propensity among scientists and business leaders to innovate and also, finally, an international community that is ready to accept technological advances in China. Enterprises that are still marginalised in innovation activities have to play a more significant role.

China also faces other challenges in its S&T development. For example, a research tradition that is both conducive to creative activities and tolerant of failure has not been nurtured; scientific leadership and scientists are more interested in pursuing quick outcomes and immediate returns; rampant misconduct and fraud erode the research community; and the lack of talent is most serious at the high level due to ‘brain drain’.

With the country aging, after 2010 the 18-22 age group (the particular group about to go
to college) is going to decline and around 2015 it is going to be surpassed by that of 55 to 60 years old. This demographic shift could be greatly disadvantageous to the supply of scientists and engineers and other professionals in China.
 
Professor Cao Cong is with the Neil D. Levin Graduate Institute of International Relations and Commerce, the State University of New York.