• China’s Democratic Future: how it will happen and where it will lead
Bruce Gilley. Columbia University Press, h/b, 297pp, £20
For thousands of years, China watchers have been trying to guess the future direction of the country - and very few, if any, have got it right. Reading the tea leaves is all the more fun precisely because it is so difficult. Anyone who did actually make a correct prediction would doubtless find himself ostracised by the China-watching community
Nevertheless, it is important to have a try at guessing the future. Bruce Gilley, who covered China from Hong Kong for a decade for the Far Eastern Economic Review, has based his book around one firm prediction: the Chinese Communist Party is doomed. Change will happen, democracy of a sort will be ushered in and we will all be the better for it.
The argument is, of course, more closely developed and, to those such as myself who would like the argument to be true, persuasive. What is most interesting is the author’s line that Chinese society is moving inexorably towards a democratic system, the seeds of which were sown hundreds of years ago. “Democracy,” he writes, “will mark the final triumph of society’s ascendancy.” However, that must be pure speculation and we will just have to wait and see. - HK

• Myths About Doing Business in China
By Harold Chee with Chris West. Palgrave Macmillan, h/b, 162pp, £25
‘China is a market of 1.3 billion people’. ‘The market is easy’. ‘Chinese business people are not trustworthy’. These are three of the 10 myths of doing business in China that are deconstructed, and countered with the opposing ‘realities’. This is a good way to address some of the misconceptions and misperceptions about China and provides a tidy structure.
Most of the analysis is impossible to disagree with. At root is the message that, to succeed in business in China, you must above all else understand the culture and play by the rules. If you kick against it, you are doomed. Harold Chee, who lectures at Ashridge Business School, draws on his experience as a consultant to illustrate many of his points with pertinent anecdotes. There are handy pointers and suggestions, although the authors’ minds seem to be on other things when they recommend that, for meetings, “women should look smart but not too sexy” (our italics).
And, yet, paradoxically, while endeavouring to equip Western businessmen and women with the knowledge to do ‘battle’ with their Chinese counterparts, they may only serve to discourage them. Delving deep into Chinese history and culture, the author(s) lay it on thick and, perhaps unwittingly, convey the impression that the Chinese will always be at an advantage. So, for example, business negotiations, like military strategy as elucidated in Sun Zi’s Art of War, require much thought, planning and patience.
Being prepared and informed is one thing - and no one can disagree with that - but there are limits to how far a Western businessperson needs to get inside the Chinese mind in order to achieve success. Countless companies operating successfully in China manage without necessarily steeping themselves in every nuance of Chinese thinking.
We certainly can’t let go an inaccuracy or two about the China-Britain Business Council, however. The CBBC is not a de facto replacement for the Great Britain-China Centre, having been in existence for some 20 years longer and fulfilling a completely different role. And neither are callers simply referred to the CBBC website when phoning in with queries, as the book seems to suggest. For all that, the book is an excellent read and a worthy addition to the growing library of books about doing business in China. - HK

Also received:

• Gold Mining in China
GFMS/China Financial Services, £1,145
via: www.amcd.co.uk
China has now had a decade of reform in the gold mining sector. However, domestic gold mining remains small-scale and would benefit from foreign participation. That could well happen, as is shown in this highly detailed report covering everything anyone would need to know about the sector. You could almost say it is a ‘gold mine’ itself. Those buying the report will also receive a companion volume, The Gold Market in China.

Reviews by Janet Kealey and Humphrey Keenlyside. The views expressed are those of the reviewers and do not necessarily reflect those of the China-Britain Business Council.